The estimable Jim Bacon’s blog has looked at post COVID public school enrollment declines here and here and here. VDOE has just posted the 2022-23 fall membership (what you and I might call “enrollment”) data that provide a further look at the situation.
In light of the hypothesis that the more affluent parents have been moving their children to private or home schooling, the data below are for both economically disadvantaged (ED) students (essentially those who qualify for the federal lunch program) and their more advantaged peers (Not ED).
Let’s start with the state data. Note: The current school year runs from this fall to the spring of 2023; the fall enrollment is reported as of 9/30/22.
The decline in the Not ED population runs counter to the (apparent, see below) population growth but is consistent with more affluent parents removing their children in response to the COVID lockdowns or the increasing politicization of the curricula.
The large NOVa districts look to be leading the charge.
Also Virginia Beach.
And Richmond.
Note added 11/20: The estimable Jeremy Lazarus explains the ‘20-21 bump and suggests other pre-2022 Richmond enrollments could be inflated by something less than a thousand:
Vava started in 2009 with [C]arroll county as contractor. Rps picked it up in 2013[] when [C]arroll dropped out. Prior to 2020 less than 1000 students. Jumped to 6000 in 2020, with rps getting more money from state. Rps dropped it 2022. Figures from 2012-2013 still show drop in [Not ED].
As a hat tip to a reader (the reader?), James Weigand, who told me the data were up:
The Census Bureau data stop at 2021 so we lack population data for the current school year. The available data suggest a 2021 COVID blow to Virginia’s population increase but give no hint whether the growth resumed in 2022.
The ED enrollment increases, however, suggest that the statewide population growth resumed robustly in 2022.
In any case, the statewide 9.5% decrease in Not ED enrollments between the fall of 2019 and fall, 2022 suggests that large numbers of Virginia taxpayers were not satisfied with the public education available to their children.
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